549: The largest predictor of longevity we don’t talk about | Performance coach & scientist Andy Galpin, Ph.D.

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Predictor
VO2 max, the maximum amount of oxygen your body can utilize during intense exercise, is a powerful predictor of longevity. emphasizes that VO2 max outperforms traditional health metrics like blood pressure and body composition in predicting lifespan. He explains that VO2 max assesses multiple systems, including the lungs, heart, and muscles, making it a comprehensive indicator of overall health 1.
If you are going to pick a single thing to ever test, and I literally mean a single thing, to give you insight into how long you're likely to live outside of accidents, VO2 max would out predict anything else you could possibly measure.
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Andy also notes that improving VO2 max can significantly enhance daily well-being, addressing issues like brain fog and concentration problems 2.
Aging
VO2 max naturally declines with age, but this decline can be mitigated through consistent physical activity. Andy shares findings from a study comparing lifelong exercisers to non-exercisers, revealing that active individuals maintain significantly higher VO2 max levels even into their 80s and 90s 3. He stresses that while genetics play a role, lifestyle choices have the most substantial impact on VO2 max 4.
Your genetics will determine some of it, but your activity and lifestyle has the biggest ability to move that number than anything else.
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By adopting a long-term, gradual approach to fitness, individuals can preserve their VO2 max and overall health well into old age.
Comparison
Comparing VO2 max to Heart Rate Variability (HRV), Andy explains that while both metrics are valuable, VO2 max is a more reliable predictor of health and longevity. He points out that VO2 max consistently correlates with better health outcomes, whereas HRV can vary widely based on numerous factors 5.
Low VO2 max is only bad. High VO2 max is only good. In fact, if you look at most of the research, it's going to tell you there is no diminishing returns of VO2 max in health.
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Andy advises using HRV as a supplementary metric, requiring more context and multiple measurements to be actionable 6.
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